by Jean-Jacques COURTEY, Doctor in Economic Geography, Ph. D
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We have decided to create a new mascot series dedicated to global economics in the broad sense, without eluding its obvious interconnections with other fields : "Into the secret of Economics" !
You are going to discover then the first issue of our new creation. We will approach facts or events from an unexpected and stimulating angle. And we hope you will like it !
To write this article, we have followed our inspiration by surfing on the past, but equally on unexpected events of the News. It will certainly surprise you...till the end !
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The concept of "Economic contraction", also called recession, is ancient. In econometrics, it means the considered country or countries, have got a growth rate of their GDP below O (so then minus something). Economics is functioning since the Sumerian and the Babylonian time in the mode of continuous flows. If you halt those flows or make them suddenly more difficult, you can create an economic contraction. It is very easy, and often rather quick. It happens when a Depression is succeeding Expansion. And its characteristic is a brutal contraction of activity (diminution of GDP, diminution of Investments...). The economy of a country is said to be in Contraction or in Recession, if growth is negative during at least three months, or if there is a simple slowdown in growth which then reaches a level barely above 0%. It might be the case of France in 2025 for instance, where the expected growth rate was at the beginning of the year estimated between 0.5 and 0.7%. However, the growth rate registered during the first trimester was + 0.1%. Concerning the USA, their growth rate could diminish from 2.8 % last year to 1.4% this year. This percentage can be compared to the 1.1% forecast for the European Union, and the 0.9% expected for the Euro area. For Germany, no growth was projected for 2025, and yet in the first trimester a small rise of 0.4% was registered. In a contradictory way, Germany is expected to be the most hit in 2025 (after a year of recession) by the tariff war with America, because of its cars, its iron, and its chemicals. But it is true that since Chancellor Bismarck (1815 - 1898), Exports have been the spearhead of the German economy. Another important basis of economics since the eve of time is the "Leverage effect", which helps a country (or an individual even) to enrich and to become powerful. You can find an illustration of this in the mysterious letter "k", that John Maynard Keynes (1883 - 1946) introduced last century, which is now called the "Keynesian multiplier", even it existed already at the time of Sumer and Babylon. Don't forget that the "cuneiform writing" was created initially for economic and commercial purposes ! Following Lord Keynes' logic in "General theory of employment, interest and money" (1936), a public spending, considered as a public investment, is provoking a rise of private expenses, and then Consumption. And this effect can be measured mathematically with the coefficient "k", which is equal to 1/1-c, where c is standing for the propensity to consume. Keynes was considering the need of an expansionist public budget to stimulate growth in a situation of Depression of the private Demand, after the famous Crash of 1929. But nowadays, he is not anymore understood because of the misleading illusions entertained about the burden of Debt repayment : in France for instance, it has in fact been reduced between 2011 and 2020 because of inflation, and it is presently representing in reality around 2% of our GDP (58 billion Euros, rounded to 60 ?), which shouldn't be so alarming. Imagine a minute an household which would have to repay every year 2% of its global income for its debts : saying it is on bankruptcy would appear silly. What's funny is that Japan and the USA are more zen than us with their respective Debts (266% and 124% of their GDP, compared with our 114% of GDP only). Instead of talking of the "wall of Debt" for France, we should talk more about the "wall of Public aid to businesses" (almost four times the amount of the annual debt repayment presently), with its rocketing rise since 2012. A decisive reallocation of 26% of Public aid to the debt repayment, without touching to the social model and Social Security, would have the best effect !
The announced potential contraction of the world economics due to the war of custom tariffs introduced by President Donald Trump (born in 1946 in New York) is difficult to follow and to understand...except if you have in mind the struggle which was opposing the previous colonies of America to the British Crown since 1775, and 1776 of course. If the first war of independence of America was won by the Insurgents in 1783 with the help of the King of France and Navarre, Louis XVI (1754 - 1793 ?), the second one in 1812-1815 ended rather with a compromise (a "Statu quo ante bellum"). Peace was signed in 1815, the year after the bombing of the first White House in Washington and the destruction of the US capital. The Canadian red tunics' occupation of Washington, on this occasion, is explaining why still nowadays the District of Columbia is treated quite separately from the rest of the USA. This second war was launched by the new USA, which tried without any success to invade Canada : they wanted Canadians to become Americans (already) ! Thereafter, Canada representing the British Crown, invaded successfully the ex-British colonies of America : the British-American war of 1812-1815 was in fact a Canadian-American war. And it had officially no winner, except that the British could regain their influence lost in 1783. This influence, noticeably economic and financial, grew again after the war of Secession (1861 - 1865), and the death of President Lincoln (1809 - 1865), when British banks reinforced their influence on the Dollar through trusts, and still more in 1913 with the creation of the Fed (Federal Reserve Bank) on the Jekyll island (Georgia, USA). The Fed is not at all a public organization, but a totally private and rather independent one, made of a conglomerate of private Banks : in 2018, the combined wealth of those banks was already estimated to more than $ 300 trillion. By comparison, the public debt of the USA was $ 36.2 trillion at the end of 2024.The bonded indebtedness of the USA towards the Fed is then an enormous constraint.They are literally in its hands, even a co-President of The Fed would be possibly nominated to lower interest rates. Don't forget that at the difference of most countries, America doesn't own its own money : it pays a heavy rent every month for the issuance of Dollar notes, and their circulation worldwide. Presidents Abraham Lincoln and John Fitzgerald Kennedy (1917 - 1963) wanted their country to be owner of its currency, but they failed. And President Ronald Reagan (1911 - 2004), who had the same idea, finally stepped back. Coincidentally, he narrowly escaped death after the attempt assassination of March 30th, 1981 in Washington, with explosive bullets called "Devastators". It's always dangerous for a government to play with currency and liquidity : flows must never be interrupted. So the world potential economic contraction announced presently is a sign that this old war has started again, for the control of the world : it is important to know who is going to have the leadership inside the Anglo-Saxon world. Yet, in less than four years now, it's rather doubtful Canada will become American (like in the claim of 1812), and that the British Crown will lose its centuries-old power, in spite of frictions. The Hamiltonian Current (favorable to a compromise with Britain and the Crown) is still very powerful and influent in the USA. And it has to be remembered the Crown is considered as the heiress and the successor of the Babylonian and Sumerian Empires, in present time !
As an aside, about the period preceding the Empire of Sumer in Mesopotamia (presently called Irak), it is difficult to know what the "Ubaidian" concepts were. Yet it is clearly demonstrated now that "Ubaidians" were not at all prehistoric men and women, but beings with a human body and a face of snake or lizard, proud of their mysterious origins. Did they have a writing ? The answer is unclear, as specialists may have bypassed this question, by concentrating only on drawings on the pottery found. Yet, the main question is when a drawing is just what it looks, or a sign of writing ? Apparently, they granted a great importance to maternity and babies, if you consider the discovered figurines near Eridu and Ur (considered as the eldest towns in the world). And the status of women seems to have been very high in their society. Nowadays, you can even buy reproductions of ophidian females breastfeeding their ophidian baby on internet. The Ubaidian period is in reality very little studied, because it causes a great "visual" problem to archeologists and classical historians. They try to introduce cognitive bias so as not to see what they see, by clumsily imagining shaky explanations. Strangely, behind the Chair of the Resurrection in the Papal audience hall, called "Paul VI hall", both in the Vatican and in Rome (Italy), there is a very large sculpture representing "Jesus after the atomic Apocalypse", since 1977 : this masterpiece of Pericle Fazzini (1913 - 1987) is just behind the Pope's throne, and it looks very much like an ophidian Ubaidian man. It also amazingly resembles to the old figure of El, God of the Desert in the Near East, whatever he is represented alone or with his Ashera. This artist was calling his sculpture "Bozzetto per la Resurrezione" ("Sketch for the resurrection" in English). Then History, Geography, Economics, and Religion, which were initially interconnected started in fact a bit before Sumer...in "Tell-al-'Ubaid" (South of Irak). Is Roma recognizing in a discrete and artistic way our original heritage, ignored and misunderstood ?
The concept of "immersing country" is at the opposite rather new : it's exactly the contrary of an emerging country. It is the Characteristic of a former dominant country losing ground and vitality. If reversed, an immersing country can become in its turn an emerging one, or to be more precise a reemerging one. This concept is a neologism we are introducing today in global economics and politics. So, you wouldn't find documentation about it normally. Those countries are not anymore converging with emerging countries, which have now become developed. You can try to find out yourself which countries could be called this way nowadays. An "immersing country" is a country where economic decisions are taken in the wrong direction, in a disorderly and sudden manner. Irrationality takes hold of experts and people in charge, to react in a way that can be quite suicidal for their currency and its flows, their economy, their bond market and stock market, and their inhabitants. In a way, it can become the mark of a dying country, which civilization and culture over suddenly seem to evaporate following a heatwave. As the phenomenon is collective and paroxysmal, it is extremely difficult to contain. This strange phenomenon is linked to the profound decadence and unbridled greed of its oligarchy. In a "democrature" (contraction and weird melting of the words "democracy" and "dictatorship"), immersion can be rather fast. The reason is coming from the absence of serious and effective counter-powers. It's almost like there is only one official truth and nothing else. Here, we are at the culmination of the Orwellian paradigm ("1984"), with its tiring nova lingua and "Big Brother" surveillance. Being an "immersing" country is worse than being a country in economic contraction. As a matter of fact, an "immersing" country can become a finishing country, which is drowning in the hubbub of its blah blah blah, with an induced fear of everything as a daily mode of domination of citizens. We will let you find by yourself examples of immersing countries, with this reading grid : you might be astonished. As an additive clue, this type of country is encouraging citizens to abandon voluntarily more and more liberties day after day, under the illusory promise of security. But the truth is that at the end, they will have nothing if they are not circumspect, by thinking twice !
The equation of GDP (Gross Domestic Product, or "Produit Intérieur Brut" in French) is the following : GDP = C + I + G + (or -) X
C stands for Consumption, I for Investment, G for Government expenditures, and X for the trade balance. In the case of France, X is negative (- 1.2%). Imports are overcoming Exports since 2004, after a positive period between 1994 and 2003. This is the huge difference with our main European partner, Germany ( + 36.1% in 2024). That said, in French business schools it is now the Purchasing function which is valued, and not at all the Export one : following this easier path, it's not surprising that X is (and should remain) negative for France. G (1670 billion Euros last year, in our country), is the target of many attacks as everybody want to reduce it drastically and a bit madly : do they realize it is counting for around 57,1% of our GDP ? Traditionally, G is important in France since Louis XIV (1638 - 1715), when his Kingdom became the First Power of the World : at his time, G even rose to 59% of the French GDP. It was the time of the first special regimes granted by the King between 1673 and 1709 (the social side of his Monarchy). Now we are only n°7, or even n°24 if we consider the classification of GDP in parity of purchasing power per inhabitant (2024). Note that if you reduce excessively and over suddenly G, a catastrophic economic contraction will follow immediately. An unacknowledged target of 28% is insane. G is representing 48.4% of the German GDP for instance (49% for EU) : Germany became last year the 3rd Economic Power ahead of Japan, and behind a stable China, and a still predictable America, even though it was in recession. So growth in France can only come from the rising of Consumption or the one of Investment. At the moment, Consumption doesn't grow much due to the lack of purchasing power of households : the latters prefer to save because of their anxiety about the future. Then, Investment is the only leverage to stimulate growth. This is explaining why we want to attract world investments in France. And in order to do it, we provide public aids to potential investors. The only problem is that those ones among the biggest have a trend to take the public help... and go away once they have obtained it in full. It's a bit like if we were paying investors to come and create companies, or buy national ones (in most cases).The example of the iron field in Dunkirk area (North) is particularly striking, but it's far to be the only one. Those companies tend to invest in France through LBOs (Leveraged Buy-out). In a LBO usually the buyer brings only 10% in capital via a holding company, the rest being payed by the company purchased itself through loans. It's very advantageous for the investors, but quite a loss for the "prey-company"...and for France at the end. And if you add the public aid (without real compensation normally), you can get easily over 100%. Usually the promises of jobs creation are not fully respected, and when the holding company is leaving at the end of the process which can take several years, most employees find themselves on the dole. And it's quite rare for the holding company to pay back the public aids received, even partially. Paradoxically, in the case of Dunkirk and its iron industry for instance, it would be less costly at the end, to dare making a frank Overlord Nationalization of the means of productions. But it takes a great strategist to accomplish this sovereignly !
To make a reference to the past, a forgotten President of Council of the XIX th century had a very efficient and stimulating effect on France recovery after the Napoleonic fall in Waterloo (1815). He was both President of Council and Minister of Finance : this former Marine Officer of Louis XVI, coming from the South-West of France and sometimes hot blooded, was Joseph de Villèle (1773 - 1854). He officiated from the end of the reign of Louis XVIII (1755 - 1824), during the second Restoration. He was precisely the father of the industrialization of Dunkirk harbor and area (North), and the savior of French agriculture, which knew a surprising and unexpected boom (1st rank in all Europe, Russia included). It's him too who succeeded in Spain, where Napoleon I (1769 - 1821) had failed, with the striking victory of Trocadero fort in 1823 (in the entrance of Cadix harbor, Andalusia), by astonishing all Europe : this unbelievable event, for a quite short military campaign, over suddenly gave back to France its status of Great Military Power... lost near Brussels in Waterloo (Belgium) in 1815 by Napoleon I facing the Duke of Wellington (1769 -1852). This was highlighted by the famous Viscount François-René de Chateaubriand (1768 - 1848), who was still his Minister of Foreign Affairs at that time. He was so amazing, excellent, and firm in his ruling of the Kingdom of France, that the following King, Charles X (1757 - 1836) kept him at the head of the State. When the Count Joseph de Villèle decided to resign from his double position in the beginning of January 1828, he left an impressive gift to France : a budget in noticeable increase and with a remarkable surplus. As he definitively refused to come back to power, on March 31st, 1830, because he had been betrayed by 70 Ultra-royalist deputies, the end of Charles X's reign came quickly : there was the Revolution of 1830 from July 27th to July 29th, the famous "Three Glorious Days". And this second bourgeois Revolution was marked by the advent of a new King, Louis Philippe I (1773 - 1850), from the younger branch of the Bourbons-Orléans, at the instigation of the Marquis de La Fayette (1757 - 1834) !
Nowadays, economics seems to come back to the XIX th century rules, which means in fact the erasure of international rules, and every man for himself. It's like if everybody wanted to make the XXI st century a new XIX th century. Coming back to the case of France, a very strong and tough leader like Joseph de Villèle - now strangely forgotten, but not for long - wouldn't have hesitated to take a great decision if he was still living and in power. Public aid to businesses represented roughly 223 billion Euros in 2024 (7.7% of our GDP, and almost four times the amount of annual debt repayment as already quoted), and France is looking for 40 billion Euros to finalize the budget of 2026. In 1979, Public aid to businesses was only representing 3% of our GDP, as a useful comparison ! Hence, seeing the inefficiency and the excessive cost of Public aid to big businesses, you can easily guess what budget cuts the Count de Villèle would have done without hesitating - even if you are not an economist. As a historical reminder, it's him who had dissolved the National Guard created on July 15th, 1789 (on the insistance of Charles X) because it had dared to protest against him and his ministers (Dissolution of April 29th, 1827). Thus, from the simple soldier to the general, everyone found themselves simple civilians overnight. It was a 1789 in reverse, but it didn't last, as in 1830 it was reestablished with the Marquis de la Fayette (1757 - 1834) at its head, like in 1789 : only the biggest taxpayers could become members, not the common people !
Even if the "smile of Dollar" is still very present, the American real economy (the one which doesn't depend on the stock markets) could suffer from the potential economic contraction announced. The US slowdown is already existing. And it could be accentuated by the shortage of foreign labour, which is risking to penalize entire sections of the economy. That said, even the stock markets and the bond market are expected to continue their strong yo-yo trend. And the unexpected emergence of a more stable elsewhere could occur. For, the possibility of an economic slowdown affecting other countries, seems to have become already more than a prediction. In 2025, the world economy appears sick, unstable, and gloomy, with a scenario of endless conflict in Ukraine, and a new war in the Near East and the Middle East between Israel and Iran provoking a strange Counter-effect. In this regard, a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran (and then of oil and liquefied gas supertankers), could have had a great impact on contracting the global economy as well, without President Trump's ceasefire of June 24 between Iran and Israel ! But, it's true while the hostilities between Ukraine and Russia are still going on, at least nobody will be able to exploit Ukrainian natural and energetic resources, nor its rare-earths, wherever they are in the country : the US-Ukrainian agreement of April 30th, 2025 will remain unenforced meanwhile. Paradoxically, the country is more independent through war, than it would be in case of real ceasefire or eventual (but very doubtful) peace. However, many on both sides and from outside too, wish to find a way out to this conflict. At the moment, only an armistice in the Korean way (Panmunjeom Armistice of July 27th, 1953), without any treaty of peace seems possible !
The unexpected thing provoking a Counter-effect was the new war between Israel and Iran, concerning the threat of the potential and unclear new position of the latter as a nuclear power. It happened four days after the IAEA report of June 9th, 2025 : according to it, Iran could enrich 409 kg of uranium from 60% to 90% in only three days, to produce at least 10 nuclear bombs thereafter. Israel's military intervention in Iran on Friday, June 13th, 2025, was coincidentally highlighting the position of Russia as a potential Mediator between the two belligerents. As an addition, according to the White House, the Iranian atomic bomb could be assembled in only fifteen days. And on Friday, June 20th, 2025, around 9 PM (local time), an earthquake of magnitude 5.1 has been recorded near a nuclear site in Qom area : was it the first subterranean test of the Iranian atomic bomb, or just an occasional seism as it can happen in this area ? Initially, it is mainly the surface of most Iranian nuclear sites which had been destroyed by the Israeli war planes, without any trace of radioactivity detected, curiously... However, Natanz main site was said to have been completely destroyed, among other casualties involving not only officials, but also civilians..and hard responses with Iranian drones and missiles on Israel through its Iron Dome. Yet, Fordo nuclear site which is sheltered below a mountain was still operative. In all cases, the difficulty was connected to the depth of the facilities (80 m or far more). The US 13-ton megabomb GBU57 can only reach 60 m depth. However, it was used by seven American B2s, on Fordo (35 km from Qom) with 12 megabombs and Natanz again with 2 megabombs - on Sunday, June 22nd, 2025, very early morning. Ispahan site about it has been bombed with Tomahawk missiles, like Natanz too from a US submarine. The strange thing is Fordo's granite mountain didn't collapse at all, even if the site was damaged. It was as if the mountain were alive and had swallowed the 12 mega-explosions and their blast, ultimately producing a black cloud in the atmosphere. In the end, it was just as though there were not anymore any stockpile of highly enriched uranium, in those three sites. Anew, no radioactive contamination was detected, even on the few lightly injured people !
The main point of this mini-war is that it ended in a damp squib, over suddenly, on June 24th, 2025 (Saint John's day). Was it connected to the allegorical liberation of the Zoroastrian Saoshyant (in the shape of the black cloud quoted above), from his jail-fortress of Fordo justly ? Saoshyant, and Saint John as well were dear to the Illuminati of Bavaria and their founder, Johann Adam Weishaupt (1748 - 1830). This war was really bizarre: it almost feels like we were in the 5th dimension ! In parallel, the Power in Iran appeared weakened : there was for a moment a question of regime change, but the answer was unclear, particularly regarding a possibility of restoring the Pahlavi Monarchy after 46 years of Revolution. Yet, with the abrupt return to peace, the regime seems to have been narrowly saved, and the Iranian people's hope for freedom has vanished. If Saoshyant ("the supreme savior" in the ultimate revival or "Frashkan") could be more than an allegorical character, as predicted in the Zend Avesta and by Zarathustra, nobody knows how unpredictable would be his interaction. We can simply notice, that the ancient religion of Ahura-Mazda (the winged-God) has reigned on Persia from the 10th century BC till the 7th century AD, and it is still existing ! We were told the Iranian air-force was like non-existent. Therefore, this non-existence made all the decoy work of the American B2s in their approach to Iran and its overflight somewhat strange, and a little exaggerated. Weirdly, in spite of the close links existing between China and Iran, the latter didn't have any Chengdu war plane. But it should change next year, with the first deliveries. As a matter of fact, during the very recent mini-war between India and Pakistan in Kashmir and Jammu (April 22nd, 2025 - May 10th, 2025), Chengdus of Pakistan like the "J-10C Vigorous Dragons" (multirole war planes) have got noticed. They have been able to inflict astonishing losses with their dual pulse missiles PL-15 (at mach 5 !) on the Indian Air Force, during the night of May 8th, 2025. J-10Cs were the sudden Revelation of this surprising mini-war. Moreover, the Chinese quantum radars could render American stealth technology inoperable. If the American stealth B2 bomber seems to be a direct result of "Zeta" reverse-engineering (dating back to 1947), except for the speed, the Chinese J-10C could look like a reverse-engineering of "Venusian" type (more recent then) allegorically !
About the situation of France, things are unclear and chaotic or contradictory, as usually. "Performative words" are not the cup of tea of French people. "Performative words" are supposed to be able to change the political, economic, or social reality they describe, through an intensive communication (to perform sensorial applications). Of course, Magical thinking is not necessarily a bad thing, when it's positive as in the Coué method. But using the same method in reverse to depress us is not the best overall effect. Yet, saying firmly and repeatedly something not properly understood, doesn't forcibly make it happen. "Any French who dares to think by himself is a hero", was saying Stendhal (1783 - 1842). The only sure thing is that the geographical living entity called "France", has appeared till now to be far stronger than its elites in full blues, and its leaders in full (non-strategic) confusion. It's a bit like if "Eternal France", the ancient Kingdom of toads and frogs was stubbornly refusing to die, and wanted to free itself from the mirages of an "hypnocracy" without much hope. We refer you to our article of October 4th, 2021 : 'Uchronic history XV : "Ranae regem petunt" or the missed surprise of Robespierre !'
