by Jean-Jacques COURTEY, Doctor in Economic Geography, Ph.D
According to a very recent special issue of "La Vie - Le Monde", untitled "The history of the West - Decline or metamorphosis ?", the top ten Economic Powers were in 2013 the following (in purchasing power parity, World Bank data) :
Even for people who do not know, this classment can appear incredible, as it is turning upside down the outdated vision they might have of the present world. And yet, it is just the beginning, notwithstanding any potential unexpected event...
America is still n°1 until 2019, and not only till the end of 2014, in spite of what is commonly heard : the last issue of the American magazine "Time" underlines the first date for China to become n°1.
Apart this point, a surprising India is the Third Economic Power, and then the Second Economic Giant after China.
Japan dropped to n°4, moving back to its rank of 1967 : it is the second drop since 2010 when it became n°3, behind China. And it should drop anew by 2050 to n°5.
Germany is n°5, confirming it is the first European economy, moving back yet from the fourth rank. It should be n°9 by 2050.
Russia, which has recovered its status of Global Power, has grown to n°6 and should remain so for around three decades, according to the economic projections, if not possibly getting above by 2050.
France is just n°7, and not anymore n°5 in spite of what some of our politicians are wrongly saying to the People : its policy of Offer ignoring Demand, marked by a displayed will of heavy reduction of public spendings is bringing its obvious mathematical results. If people want "paths" to be "embellished" by "the Great Monarch" Nostradamus (1503-1566) predicted, it is necessary to repair them at first. Apart this very French dream of an hypothetical coming savior, France thus should drop to n°10 by 2050, after a rising Indonesia and Germany, rank n°7 being then taken by Mexico !
Just behind, Brazil is n°8, but should become n°4 by 2050 (French rank in 1990). Nevertheless, an alternative possibility for n°4 could be Russia by this date, if we want to enlarge the scope.
UK is only n°9, in spite of its just recently renewed economic dynamism, but it wouldn't be anymore in the top ten by 2050 normally. It might be fragilized also by the results of the near referendum about the independence of Scotland (September 18th, 2014), and another one about the preservation of UK in European Union circa 2015 - 2017.
And finally, Italy is n°10, with its curious recessive Policy in order to reduce Debt, still growing against all expectations : it should also be absent of the top ten by 2050.
E7, a rising group of emerging countries (BRICS plus Mexico and Indonesia), is appearing in the facts, in parallel to G8 (G7 ~ USA, Japan, Germany, France, UK, Italy, and Canada ~ + Russia since 1998, pushed aside in March 2014 for an undetermined period since Crimea has de facto rebecome Russian). It seems that its natural coming co-leaders for an alternative economic order in a practically self-sufficient commercial circuit, could actually be Russia and China.
Another country could join the still very informal group of E7, to become E8 : why not Vietnam ?
We wouldn't add any comment as readers are able by themselves to realize if the West is effectively on decline, or just in a period of supposed "metamorphosis", at a time a new world war is almost threatening to burst out inadvertently from Ukraine with Russia.
Escalation is observable in words, and the most necessary at the moment is certainly a permanent truce between every part in Ukraine, unity appearing to be possibly maintened only in a de facto confederacy or alike.
The new world Alexander the Great (356 - 323 BC) inaugurated breathtakingly 2348 years ago, by giving birth to "Occident", might just be a fascinating inheritage and "souvenir" very soon for the pupils of Eurasia...or not. Wasn't he the only European who has ever been "King of Asia" ?!
We must never forget "Megas Alexandros"- as he was called in Greek -, wanted to establish a permanent bridge between Occident and the Orient at large, into a brotherhood to create by following the dream of his Universal Kingdom. Him who liked uncomplicated, sincere and straight women, gave the example through his own swift marriages, with Asian women : Thalestris (with his "meteoric" marriage "of the Sun and the Moon"), Roxane, and Stateira !
It is in fact Alexander, son of Zeus, who opened the door for a universal fraternity between every human beings, before Jesus Christ, son of God - who greatly admired and valued this formidable idea !
Alexander last wish was to be able to come back after his death once again - through the eyes of his descendance at least -, to see if he was well remembered and praised still admiratively.
Amazingly, with another glance than the one of our time, he might think the new paradigm for this world is to pass from his original Macedonia to a "functional" Macedonia - "Macédoine" in French -, like in the subtle art of strategy or ...cookery ! And him, he would have skillfully chosen ...to maintain Peace for eternal glory !