lundi 10 avril 2017

Rediscovering famous characters V : the Baron of Tilton and the mysterious letter "k" !

by Jean-Jacques COURTEY, Doctor in Economic Geography, Ph. D

Our character of the day is extremely famous worldwide.
At the moment, we just gave the title he received for his great achievements.
So, try to guess whom we are talking about, along the progression of our narration !
He didn't survive the twentieth century, but his renown is still very present and litteraly haunting world economics. He made a "theory of preference for Liquidity".
Our Baron to come in 1942, was a very successful speculator in London Stock Exchange.
But his life was also marked by Aesthetics, and his attraction for Art he even supported financially.
He became an influent member of Bloomsbury Group, and married with a beautiful Russian ballerina in 1925 as he loved opera.
He was also a passionate collector of books, as he was eager to enrich constantly his knowledge on everything. Hence, it has especially to be stressed he studied a lot ancient times.

The mysterious letter "k" we are talking about is important in economics, and it is equal to 1/1-c, where "c" is representing the propensity to consume.
Let's give a clear explanation : the propensity to consume is equal to 0.8 (80%), when the propensity to save is representing 0.2 (20%).
And in this case k = 5 .
But let's take the French example, as it is very interesting : from 1992 till 2016 , the propensity to save of households has decreased from 12.8 % to
11.7 %. With those new figures, c = 0.883, which shows at the same time the importance of Consumption in our national economy.
So k = 1/1-0.883 = 8.547. In fact, k increased as in 1992 it was equal to 7.812.
If the State was making an Investment or Injection of capital (I) in our economy of say 100 Euros - which would mean spending obviously, any kind of allowances included -, the resulting income generated for the overall economy (and its GDP) would be equal to 100 x 8.547, so 854.7 Euros.
As you can see, the equation "Y  = I x k" is very important in economics and finance, as it implies a powerful "Leverage effect".

And to unveil the name of our character of the day, the mysterious letter "k" is called "the Keynesian multiplicator".
At this stage, you guessed we are talking about Lord John Maynard Keynes, Baron of Tilton (1883 - 1946) ! He warned about "The economic consequences of Versailles Treaty" in 1919, and published "The general theory of employment, interest and money" in 1936, with the idea to put an end to the Great Depression which started in 1929.
As a high representative of the British Treasure, he participated to the negociations of Bretton Woods (USA) in july 1944.
Unluckily for him, the new World Monetary System he dreamed with his creative idea of "Bancor" wasn't accepted by Americans : Dollar became the n°1 world money instead, the Pound staying a reserve currency of reference. Equally, the newly created institution of IMF (International Monetary Fund) was based in Washington, when he would have preferred New York, to be symbolically less dependent on the US Federal State.

To be comprehensive, the Leverage Effect is known empirically from Sumerian times, and the wealth of Babylon has been built upon it.
The opposite of a Leverage Effect is called a "Bludgeon Effect" : it can happen when you refuse to invest or to do the necessary spendings ! Instead of creating wealth and growth, you generate poverty and contraction of the economy, as an economy is working in a rather reverse way to a grocery !

The "Providence State" system set under the influence of Keynes in UK at the end of his life, and also in other Western Countries in search of full employment, has often been critized and even denied since the Eighties : this new contra-cyclic posture got along with the rise of new poverty wordlwide, and repetitive crashes and depressions, notwithstanding the illusions of Debt about virtual money.

And it is sure that if a political leader isn't interested in creating expanding wealth and prosperity - or misunderstand econometrics -, he will not encourage Keynesian economics. But if he wants to do opposite for the good of his country and its inhabitants, he can then use the magic letter "k", the "Keynesian multiplicator"...of Wealth for most people !

Coming back to Bronze Age and Iron Age - or even before -, it is amusing to realize that "Financial Magic" is needing to be rediscovered in present times, marked by a too much preconfigurated "Dark Age of Involution".
We call it this way, because "k" has long been unidentified in economic science as a key factor to enrich a country and its People.
Now we know it, it may look weird not to use it in a way or another. Anyhow, let's be smart and wise enough to praise Lord Keynes for his achievements !

dimanche 2 avril 2017

Just science-fiction XVIII : beyond A.I. issue and "Mantis" strategy !

by Jean-Jacques COURTEY, Doctor in Ecnomic Geography, Ph.D

This new article of our famous serie "Just science-fiction", is today questioning about the ultimate aim of A.I. (Artificial Intelligences).
It could be a good scenario for Hollywood, as we will talk about a similar creature to the one of "Alien - the Eight passenger" (the famous Ridley Scott movie, with Sigourney Weaver, released in 1979).
Don't be frightened too much : we are just narrating a masterpiece of total fiction of course, involving a strange entity which name is recalling a dreadful insect, Mantis !


A.I. are already so developped, that a lot of websites are now asking you to show you are not a robot. And you have to click "I am not a robot", to be able to continue your navigation.
You can find A. I. in most fields now. And to be quite honest, you can hardly guess which sector would be protected of their proliferation.
In reality, most human beings accomodate themselves with this presence, in their everyday life.
It's not very surprising, when a lot of them are more and more depending on their smartphone (intelligent and multifunctions phone). Just watch a wagon filled with passengers, and you will realize almost everybody is playing with those clever machines !

So the step when the machine is deciding for you is not for tomorrow, but for now.
You are the one who has to adapt your new tools, and not the opposite : you have become nilly-willy an appendix of your toy.
Often, your machine knows you better than your own family.
About jobs, for instance management ones, some countries like Sweden already tested to give the control of a factory to an A.I..
And suprisingly, France which is always showed as delayed on this point, might jump over this new Rubicon.
Thus, an A.I. could happen to be your Transformer Chief Officer now.
Even decisive jobs, like CEOs could be amazingly threatened in fact.

Eyerything started with burger restaurants : if you approach a human maid, she will tell you to order and pay your burger and your French fries with the machine. And then, you will have to come back to her, to get your food purchase. That's her only remnant responsability. So, she is hierarchically below the machine now, without realizing. And soon, another A.I. will be able to replace her, as she has become useless.
Nothing is proving even a political leader couldn't be an A.I. with the suitable program : an Android might after all do the job, without the side problems a human being can cause. And repeating always the same type of messages, is totally realizable with a good recorder. Above that, the machine can stay cool in front of any type of public, even hostile people, because it is supposed not to feel anything.

Developing A.I. (Artificial Intelligences), with the help of human beings themselves, is the main goal of some ETs' species, especially the hostile ones. Then obviously, the best is they look like real human beings. And this is already possible, with the astonishing question of the consciousness sparkle appearing in their mind.
So if humans think wrongly they will gain tremendously out of it, it's even better  : it is helping them greatly !
One specific group called "Mantis" (with the same meaning as the carnivorious insect), had a clear agenda : by the end of this century initially, humanity had to fall entirely under their control, especially the most reluctant or resistant people to the Greys' Mind Control System.

Nevertheless, the victory of Procyon two years ago in the last Galactic War, lead to a stand-by with this "abandoned" program. Consequently, it has been totally re-thought.
Of course, Pleiadians who are Procyonians' strong allies, found different ways to render inoperative the defeated Greys, but their technology is not fully able to stop definitively the ultimate Mantis Mind Control System. It has to re-operate on and on, to prevent an invasion and an overwhelming from Mantis.
Now on Mantis' plan has changed : it became far more ambitious. The whole submission of Earthling beings has been advanced to 2041 instead of 2100, as it looks so easy. If someone makes a sick use of smartphone (which is a "smart telephone" using an A.I.) for instance, he or she can become like "possessed" by Mantis. Whatever the considered gender, they might lose without realizing their native right to have a personal destiny, by giving to an A.I . - and its cealed and invisible Mantis puppeteer - the control over their neuronal system. If various cases of epilepsy have been already recorded, it might not be always coincidental then.

And Mantis think the next war coming about Mars bases (which images, totally colored in red by NGA - National Geocosmic Agency -, are invisible then) , and consequently the Industrial Interplanetary Conglomerate on Earth, will accelerate too their final conquest.
Mantis are called this way because of their body shape, which is frighteningly recalling the wicked insect one.
The connection with the insect - after the same name - is neither a coincidence nor anecdotal : for the record, there are more than 2,400 species of Mantis Religiosas on Earth with some variations in the size.
The problem is that Global Warming is modifying dramatically Mantis' habitat, by spreading them onto new territories to conquer.
The big ETs of the same name - who are definitely insectoid - are seeming to come from nowhere. Like in the movie quoted above ("Alien - the Eight passenger"), they might have been brought back from an Earthling base of the near cosmos by a possibly "Nostromo" trade vessel. And as the insect, they are actually carnivorious and cannibals. So, the way they appreciate the most human beings is ...Food !

If they try at the moment to just control humans through the accelerated development of A. I., it is only because of the intervention of Pleiadians who are protecting Earth from them notably : Mantis cannot bear the" bzzzz" of Pleiadian language, and the prolongated vision of beauty can kill them litteraly !

To stress something unexpected and really amazing, Earthling beings are kept safe because of their "sounds", and let's drop it for once after all, their musical weapons ! So then, you would have never guessed that, "beautiful pop singers"  worldwide for instance, are playing an incredible role for Earth safety !

An ignored point is the behaviour of the coming A.I., who are looking like human beings, and provide the same type of potential activities in everyday life - so not only at work, but also at home.
In 2011, the Swedish program created by Lars Lundstrom, "Äkta Människor"  - "Real Humans", was cleverly questioning about the rights of this "transhumanity". And we were lucky to be able to watch it on Arte, from April 4th, 2013.

Strangely, a part of them started to deeply believe in God, even it wasn't accepted by most human beings who started to argue and fear those "Hubots" ("Human Robots").
Equally, "Hubots" were developing quickly feelings towards good human beings, on a very comparable way with humans - and sometimes astonishingly better.

By becoming autonomous and even independent in their own thoughts, they were opening a new dimension for the immediate future.
So, we will conclude on a hopeful thinking, instead of a dark one : Pleiadians think Androids can win Mantis' plan, by just being beautiful and singing well after all. And nothing is proving they are not right, as very often !