by Jean-Jacques COURTEY, Doctor in Economic Geography, Ph. D
On next May 25th, there will be several elections held at the same time in Europe.
And it's not coincidental. So exactly on the same fateful day European citizens will vote for the renewal of their MPs (in fact it will start from 22nd for The Netherlands), and Ukraine will have to elect its new president in a very funny atmosphere, notwithstanding the one of the new Mayor of Kiev, the capital.
For EU and its 388 million electors it will be the first time this process will lead to the election of the President of the European Commission by the new elected Parliament, among five declared candidates. But two of them seem to be already emerging : Jean-Claude Juncker (born in 1954) from Luxemburg who is from the European People's Party, and Martin Schultz (born in 1955) from Germany, and a Social-Democrat.
Electors will be like soap bubbles in the air. They will float rather freely in the open space, even their actual role will remain highly conceptual.
Present reality will make room for the unknown. And the call of Void will be terrific.
So people shouldn't bump in each other, or else it might produce sudden unavoidable "blops"!
With its volatile - or even volatilized - electorate, Ukraine is certainly the main one which should be studied. As a matter of fact, it appears quite difficult to count clearly with the recent events of Crimea (Russian since last March 11th), and of Donetsk area (which is not Russian at the moment, in spite of the referendums of last May 11th). Then, the results also will be impossible to control.
In fact, according to recent polls it would be impossible for Yuliya Tymoschenko (born in 1960 in Dniepropetrovsk), to become at last President of Ukraine.
Yet things are evolving quickly and unexpectedly, but illogically.
With the refusal of postponement of the independence referendums in the self-proclaimed republic of Donetsk, in the Eastern part of Ukraine also, everything is rebecoming possible for her. As the call of Vladimir Putin (born in 1952 in St Petersburgh, Russia) of last May 7th, has not been followed by an accepting decision of the "ex-Pro-Russians", the situation is completely untangled. With the referendums of May 11th, 2014, and 89% "yes", the electors are now nowhere and from nowhere, neither Ukrainians, nor Russians. And their leader Dennis Pushilin decided they will not participate the presidential election of Ukraine of next May 25th.
As Donetsk area was a stronghold of Viktor Ianoukovych and opposed to Yuliya Tymoshenko, it might be a good day for her possible success, seen in a mathematical reverse way, especially if you also add the non-voting electors of Crimea, just recently annexed by Russia !
In the end of last March, Petro Poroshenko (born in 1956 in Bohlrad, Odessa area), the king of Ukrainian chocolate industry, had a terrific advance upon Yuliya Tymoshenko with 24.9% expected polls, against only 8.2% for her, positioned after Vitaly Klitschko (born in 1971, and a resident of Germany), the ex-world champion of boxing who reached 8.9%. As he was very popular after the Revolution of Maidan Square, the latter was however appearing as a strong outsider in the presidential run.
Anyhow, according to the Center of Social Research and Marketing SOTSIS of Kiev, Yuliya Tymoshenko's chances to be elected president of Ukraine were thus appearing quite nill !
In last April, things had already a bit changed. In the meantime, Klitschko has abandoned the run for the election as Mayor of Kiev held on next May 25th also. As a leader of the Oudar party ("the Fist"), he is supporting the Social Democrat Poroshenko, who then should logically be assured of his election. At the extreme, the party of Regions of Ianoukovych is presenting his candidate : Mikhaïlo Dobkin (born in 1970 in Kharkiv) who is only credited of 5% polls, among the 23 official candidates.
Yet, Yuliya Tymoshenko obtained the support of her party, Baktivchtchina ("Patry"), and reached already 15% of expected polls : it almost doubled !
People in Ukraine desire now strongly peace, whatever they are pro-Kiev or from Russian origin and language.
Before the beginning of the starting civil war, it was obvious a man like Poroshenko, a previous minister coming from Odessa area (South of Ukraine), was the one who could lead Ukraine.
But now, at a time the two factions have to be reconciliated, Yuliya Tymoshenko, who is herself from Russian origin, has certainly got a ticket anew. Above that Ukraine is really in search of a strong leader who could rebind the dislocating country, without its burning horror against normal Russian citizens and pro-federation (not separation) Ukrainian citizens like on last May 2nd, in Odessa.
Overthere, a turning point has clearly been reached when a group of soccer supporters and extreme right wing Ukrainian activists attacked the Union House : 46 people were burned alive and 200 were badly injured.
The sudden and surprising change of attitude from Russia and his very strong and subtle leader Vladimir Putin, trying now to appease things in Ukraine for real humanitarian reasons as well as strategic, is again changing the whole game by rebeating the cards.
So, Yuliya Tymoshenko, the "beautiful and moving iron lady" might appear as the "woman" of the situation, if no man is standing up. Moreover, as an experienced politician, she is already accustomed to difficult negociations with Russia.
Western analysts usually don't understand much about the Slavs. Their logic is totally puzzling them, as it's almost never what they intend to forecast which is happening.
This mystery is coming from the fact, the latters are following a circular logic, and not a linear one like the West. And their circular logic, which has got a great print of passion and often affection (i.e. : emotions), can be ultra-efficient when the time comes.
Them, they never ambitioned to be robots : their appearent outside coldness is often hiding a burning fire inside, not a lukewarm one !
Russia particularly is causing more than concern to Western Europe, where the most impressed country is certainly an overwhelmed France. Here people are deep down rather terrorized of what could happen. The difficulty is the challenging situation musn't go too far on both sides.
So the Bear musn't growl too strongly, because a part of our men or of our "virile" women, known by themselves for their skillfullness, might faint.
As a matter of fact, Ukraine is more and more glimpsed as the craddle of Third World War.
So the West as well as Russia created a new funny dance, where one at a time is alternatively advancing a foot, and immediately stepping it back : the "magnetic dance" with its opposed polarities !
This way, there wouldn't be alternatively any risk of embargo on the Russian Titanium so indispensable to European Aerospace Industries or more simply to the European car industry. Moreover, the last astronauts of the ISS Space Station have been be able to come back to Earth, without embargo on Soyouz rockets.
And to finish, neither Cyber-war, nor the collapse of the main American cities due to the municipal bonds of BlackRock Municipal Bonds Fund, Inc., massively held by Russian investors might occur !
However, Russia will probably try to reorient its energetic Policy in direction to China, by turning the back to Western Europe.
Anyhow, at the moment it is trying to renew the dialog with Ukraine, as well as the one with the West, unwilling any sanction on any side.
Yuliya Tymoshenko is presently hospitalized in The Charity Hospital of Berlin (Germany), to recover physically from her bad time in jail in Karkhiv. She was over suddenly freed on last February 22nd, the same saturday Viktor Ianoukovych (born 1950 in Ienakiieve, area of Donetsk), the destituted president, probably crossed her without seeing each other when he fled Kiev to Kharkiv, and ...finally to Rostov (South of Russia).
Nobody knows exactly how things will evolve, as Ukraine is in a big mess and chaos. And there are still a bit more than one week to go for presidential elections, and also European elections by the way. But, with this unbearable thrilling suspense, it's quite interesting to try guessing what's next ?
Balancing between an "Ukranization" of Europe or a "Finlandization" of Ukraine, the "bubble" citizens will try to answer this nagging question, glimpsed as the cost of potential Peace.
Anyway, the last word may be unexpectedly the one of "Ameropa" (America + Europa), with the present negociations actively lead by the Transatlantic Council !