dimanche 18 décembre 2011

The hardly forecastable 2012 : the only certainty could be divine fantasy !

by Jean-Jacques COURTEY, Doctor in Economic Geography, Ph. D

Like 2011, 2012 may be a year of a lot of collective plans' failures. Nothing may really work the way it should. Visibility may become an hope more than being effective. The always greedy and fake God' believers wouldn't know where they are standing. And we will certainly see amazing individual successes and come back. But at the same time a lot of mistakes could be avoided because of that. And except for the ones setting them, bananas' skins wouldn't slip anymore. With the so-called "climatic change", they will intend to dry up rather quickly, which could seem extraordinary. And this will be true even if people are not in Iceland (103 000 km2 and 300 000 inhabitants), near an eruptive volcano.
As a matter of fact nobody knows if a new eruption will happen in 2012: Katla volcano for instance (south of Iceland, east of Eyjafjallajökull) or another one, following Eyjafjallajökull (april 2010) and Grimsvötn (may 2011).
But a lot of people may wander if the upheavals with their disturbing carry on will start again next year. One thing is sure, icelandic volcanoes can affect very much air flights and freight, and then the world economy if eruption last more than one week. Everebody still remembers the very surprising Eyjafjallajökull: Katla is just more powerful than it. Nevertheless, at the moment Myrdalsjökull glacier where stands Katla seems rather quiet. Let's hope it will stay this way, and that the main icelandic surprise will come from economic recovery: 2% expected growth rate, after a contraction of 3% this year for a GDP of 10.8 billion $ in 2010 !

As usually a lot of unforecasted events will occur, like a possible attempt of opening of North Korea (120 538 km2 and 23,9 million inhabitants) to the West. This potential timid u-turn will be a precious opportunity for everybody. It will depend on western countries like America or others to help and encourage this necessary progressive change, offering at the moment food in exchange of a good will nuclear apeasement. China - and partly Russia - will most probably play an important diplomatic role in between for the normalization of Pyongyang regime, and its wished peaceable integration to the world beside the one of Seoul. This might reinforce the Reconciliation Agreement of 1991 - since the end of a three years war (1950-1953) -, and the new Dialog initiated in 2000 with ups and downs. It would give a breathe to South Korea (99 268 km2 for 49 million inhabitants), and also to Japan, its other worried neighbour, while helping the economy and population in need of North Korea. The official name or North Korea, "Choseon", seems referring clearly to the last royal dynasty of the same name (1392 -1910) and "Mrs Kim legend", before Japan's occupation (1910-1945). No wander why it reestablished a dynastic system, even communist, from Kim Il-sung in 1948 : he was born Kim Song-ju (1912-1994). He was followed by his son, Kim Jong-il (1942-2011), and the next one to be since yesterday, his benjamin grandson, Kim Jong-un (age unknown precisely, 27 or 28). Let's quote that the South Korean GDP is around 84 times the one of the North (only 12.1 billion $ in 2010). So North Korea, which is also a mining and industrial country, beside a too low agricultural and fishing level, is representing anew quite a potential market for years.
At the same time people who didn't believe at all in God may totally change their mind, even surprising their surroundings. Hence dynastic " rainbows" may not be sufficient to them anymore.

Paradoxically, reincarnation (with its numerous lives) may be suddenly less fashionable both for logical and divine reasons.
On one hand, the always growing population of the planet may at the end cause funny interrogations about the implied demultiplication and ubiquity of souls.
And on the other hand, you never knew why you were punished, and only sometimes rewarded, as it would have come from the karma of a forgotten and supposed previous life. Nevertheless, for the ones bound to this mostly human explanation, possibilities of their soul going somewhere else than Earth, like Mercury's infierno or the marvels of Jupiter or Uranus for instance, might be opened by a less convinced God. And in this new unitarian vision of Universe, compassion which is a very positive attitude to be encouraged, will be more necessary than ever.
Indeed divine fantasy could be the only certainty of this very special year, so difficult to forecast.
The superbs will become humble because they will be lost. And the usually humble persons, always forgotten for good things, suddenly bolder and hence lucky.
Synchronicity, broadmindedness, and patience will be required from this "brave new world" - so was the nickname given by Aldous Huxley in 1931 -, in this economic, financial and political turmoil to ward off big war risks.

Cooperation and flexibility between countries and also people will be stressed by a tremendous and desperate necessity. Individuals may have to say their word this time, and to be consulted, recognized and honoured for some of them.
Also, some countries like Turkey (774 815 km2 for 76 million inhabitants), may suddenly appear through their real power. As a matter of fact, partly European for its territory (Istanbul western area), Turkey is strangely underestimated in Europe, when it has become the first economic power of the Middle East : it represented already around twice as much Saudi Arabia's GDP in 2010.
Free trade can be a more effective driving force than weapons to promote freedom all around the world, including in no more isolated "ideological islets".
Above that 2012 will be an exciting year because of London's Olympic Games.
Wiseness coupled with skillfulness
may not be really operative yet, but they will certainly have to be used to apease the crowd all around the world, and not only in Europe.
Political lapsus or "missed acts" may happily lead to new openings, which appeared impossible just before. So then, brilliant, original and generous ideas may succeed to hard, inappropriate and unfair ones. Also unexpected unlocking of preoccupaying situations or topics, may suddenly find unusual happy endings for everybody.
If 2012 is appearing for many as war carrier, including in the Persian Gulf area, surprising reconciliations or last minute compromises might also occur on the contrary.
Even people usually hiding in the dark, will be under the full light for God' and one' sake.
And at the end of this fateful Mayan year (between december 21st and 23rd), everybody will have suddenly a clear-cut opinion about" the new era", after such a quivering period : whatever will happen effectively, luminously, or through unusual "blue beams"...!

Even more than 2011 the year 2012 will be sobering down a lot of people, nolens volens. It will be a full Renovation one. If the world appears presently upside down , it will change over suddenly : at the very last, an unexpected order will emerge triumphantly from chaos in a gigantic spin.

Instead of being sad, may be should we see new opportunities coming to us, at the difference of the blind ones. As a matter of fact, a totally new world and universe also are winking at us. A running jump could be necessary to stick to them.

Jesus Christ was once adressing to the perplex Nicodemus about rebirth (one new life) promised to followers, in the kingdom of God through eternal life :
"If you don't believe me when I tell you about the things happening on Earth, how will you believe me if I speak of the things happening into the Sky ?" [Gospell of Saint John, 3-12]

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